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This week, Zheng cotton fluctuated upward, the main contract price rose from 13600 yuan / ton to 14600 yuan / ton, and the rebound space was close to 1000 points. When the whole cotton textile market fell into panic, Zheng cotton did not fall but rose. What is the logic behind it?

Market professionals believe that from the recent industrial research, the downstream textile market is cold, the enterprise start-up rate is low, the cotton raw materials are purchased cautiously, the finished product inventory digestion is slow, and some enterprises have been shut down for more than a month. In such a weak situation, the reasons for the continuous rebound of Zhengzhou cotton price are as follows:

First of all, the early market worries about the economic recession caused by the Fed's interest rate increase intensified, and a wave of deep adjustment appeared in the whole commodity market, including cotton. However, with the recent fall in the US inflation index, the Fed's expectation of interest rate increase eased, and the early overreaction, commodities including cotton rebounded as a whole.

Secondly, this round of rebound reflects the weak reality and strong expectations. When the cotton price fell to a low point in the early stage, the cotton textile industry was in the off-season, and domestic and foreign sales orders fell precipitously. Now, the cotton textile industry is about to usher in the "golden nine silver ten" production and sales peak season, including foreign Christmas and other festivals, orders will also increase, which is conducive to promoting cotton consumption. Of course, the above is only the expectation of the market, but from now on, foreign trade orders are still not improving. Although domestic sales orders have recovered compared with the previous period, the strength of the rebound is small and the stimulating effect on the market is limited.

In addition, the boosting effect of this rise in foreign cotton is more obvious. After nearly a month's rebound, the main contract price of American cotton has risen to around 100 cents / pound, up nearly 20 cents from the previous low point. The US ban on Xinjiang cotton objectively increased the demand of American cotton, decreased the consumption of Xinjiang cotton, and stimulated the rise of American cotton. Moreover, since this year, the main cotton producing areas of the United States have suffered from dry weather, and the market continues to speculate. The decline in output in the new season also supports the continuous rise of American cotton.