Yesterday (17), Zheng cotton soared sharply and the daily limit board. On the same day, the main CF2005 contract closed 13510 yuan / ton, compared to last Friday (February 14th) 13030 yuan / ton closing price rose 480 yuan / ton.
Why did Zheng cotton suddenly soar? Does it presage the coming of spring? In fact, everyone was flashed by the "locust concept" hype.
On the 18 th, cotton futures were cut down and funds were substantially reduced. The "locust concept" hype is so dumb. The root cause is that the locust disaster ended in India on Monday night.
This is a very typical concept hype. After leaving this theme, Zheng Mian also sought other themes for speculation. However, judging from the trend, it is expected that Zhengyang will still be dominated by narrow oscillations in the near future.
1. The losses caused by locusts from Africa to the world's agricultural products and cotton production are uncertain. At present, although this locust disaster has ended in India, it has caused great losses to agriculture in East Africa, India and Pakistan, but it is uncertain how much losses will be caused to the cotton industry in India and Pakistan, the main cotton producing country.
Will locusts fly over Himalaya into China? The current estimate is unlikely. Therefore, the influence of locust on cotton industry should be evaluated continuously.
Two, the impact of the epidemic, the cotton industry chain to resume work and resume production for a long time. As of Monday (17), enterprises in non key epidemic areas have resumed work, and the government's notice is also pushing for a full resumption of work. However, because workers in some areas are still in the "closed control", they can not return to the factory temporarily, and the logistics enterprises are also in semi stagnation. The main roads and highways are not very smooth. The most important thing is that the whole industrial chain is not complete, and the "single tree is hard to become a forest".
How much longer do we have to wait? It is not too late. Up to now, except for Hubei Province, other provinces in the country have seen the dawn. It has been estimated that only 7-10 days later, enterprises will be able to recover 7788 if they return to work.
To sum up, the short line of Zheng cotton futures is mainly based on the narrow oscillation of 13000 yuan / ton line, and on the long term, Zheng cotton is still more optimistic. But when the rebound will take place, we will see the development of the epidemic.