At this stage, the cotton market is still in the weak position, and the national reserve remains unclear for a day, and the cotton market is still hard to rise.

On the one hand, because of the reduction of cotton planting area year by year, the supply of new year has been declining year by year, the stock has been opened, the pressure has obviously reduced, the market has picked up the breathing machine, and on the other hand, the supply is sufficient due to the continuous storage and storage of stocks, and is highly not threatened by the threat of national storage.

Looking at the historical market, we can find that the cotton market before 2008 is stable, basically running in the range of 10000-15000 yuan / ton, and the amazing performance of the cotton market is in the period of 2008-2014.

For 2008-2010 years, it was once brilliant and straight up to the skies, and in 2011-2015 years, it was all over.

There are fundamental reasons behind the ups and downs of the market.

In the 2008-2010 year of the bull market, the big bull market was a combination of the right time, the right place and the three.

2008, the global financial crisis broke out with the outbreak of the global financial crisis.

The spread of Europe and the United States economy has declined to varying degrees, the international market demand is continuing to slump, exports are seriously hindered, China's textile industry is facing severe challenges, low profits, many enterprises are facing restructuring, cotton consumption has dropped sharply, inventories have not been digested, cotton price panic has fallen, and once reached the threshold of 10000 yuan.

Subsequently, the state has introduced policy support measures densely, and China is no exception. Frequent interest rate cutting tools are used to release liquidity and strive to ensure growth. Especially four trillion investment plans to start domestic demand have a positive impact on the textile industry.

In terms of industry policy, from 2008 to 2009, the state has increased the export rebate rate of textiles and services for three times.

To ease the impact of falling cotton prices on cotton farmers and effectively protect their interests, the state carried out an unprecedented cotton purchase in 2008 - 2009, and collected 4 tons of cotton 2 million 870 thousand tons in succession, accounting for 1/3 of cotton production in 2008/2009 in China, which greatly stabilized cotton prices.

After this series of initiatives,

Demand has gradually improved, while cotton has been in a disadvantage for a long time compared with other crops. The sowing area of cotton has been shrinking due to expansion of other agricultural products, and the consequences of its accumulation are beginning to appear. Cotton is beginning to have a tight supply and demand.

Under the guidance of the core factors of tight supply and demand relations, capital began to flow into the cotton futures market in a large scale, thus achieving the cotton bull market in 2008-2010.

　　而伴隨著價(jià)格的上漲，2009 年開(kāi)始主產(chǎn)國(guó)棉花種植面積及產(chǎn)量開(kāi)始不斷增加，這種態(tài)勢(shì)一直到 2011 年仍在延續(xù)，而該年需求卻在歐債危機(jī)、國(guó)內(nèi)高棉價(jià)及化纖替代的沖擊下急轉(zhuǎn)直下斷崖下降至谷底，導(dǎo)致全球棉花開(kāi)始嚴(yán)重供大于需，庫(kù)存開(kāi)始累積，且在之后的幾年時(shí)間里，盡管種植面積不斷回落，但產(chǎn)大于需的局面并未終結(jié)，庫(kù)存仍在累積，價(jià)格承壓進(jìn)入了瀑布式下跌模式，我們看到中間 2012-2014 年以震蕩格局出現(xiàn)，跌勢(shì)放緩，主要因這幾年中國(guó)為保護(hù)農(nóng)民收益而繼續(xù)進(jìn)行收儲(chǔ)，增加了當(dāng)時(shí)的需求，一度對(duì)市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成支撐，但國(guó)儲(chǔ)庫(kù)里的天量庫(kù)存在收儲(chǔ)政策取消之后成為最主要的供應(yīng)壓力，2014 年國(guó)儲(chǔ)政策取消改為目標(biāo)價(jià)之后市場(chǎng)快速下探。

In terms of 2015 performance, the new year's planting area is normalized and reduced to support the market.

Still in the doldrums, the threat of national cotton storage, Zheng cotton 1500 yuan / ton width of the channel in the concussion downward, high point 13640 yuan / ton, low 11705 yuan / ton.

2015, the turnover of cotton and the decline of both positions in the year of the cotton market are not enough.

The reduction of planting area was supported by exports, while the performance of the US cotton under the pressure of no throwing and storage was slightly better than that of Zheng cotton. At the beginning of the year, it rose from the cost of 58 cents per cent to the highest point, and then dropped at 68 cents. At the end of the year, it was 63 points.