Worries about tightening monetary policy in the US have long subsided, and now global policymakers are more entangled in how to deal with China. Economic transformation The second stage.

The first stage of China's economic transformation - industrialization has shaken the global economy. Commodity producers benefit from China's strong demand for natural resources. Over the past 10 years, six of the 10 fastest growing economies have been in Africa.

The price competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry has led to a great loss of employment opportunities in developed economies and some developing economies, but at the same time, it has also curbed inflation. Many consumer goods are no longer too expensive for thousands of consumers.

The second stage of China's economic transformation is no less important than the first stage.

Consumption will replace investment and become the main driving force for China's economic growth. The proportion of the service sector in the overall economy will rise, and the proportion of the industry will decline correspondingly. Formerly commodity intensive, based on cheap labor. manufacturing industry It will give way to cleaner and cleaner manufacturing industries.

The added value of well-educated and productive talents will stay more in China than in multinational companies.

Of course, this is only a conception.

Ministry of Commerce of China International Trade Li Jian, a researcher at the Institute of economic cooperation and research, said that in the next 20 years, China will remain the most important driving force for global economic growth, but it will no longer import raw materials and components, but then process it and then export it.

He pointed out that China has realized that investment and exports can not be relied on again as the main driving force for economic growth.

China has deliberately slowed down the pace of economic growth in order to tackle the longer-term structural problems and achieve more sustainable economic growth.

China's new leadership is expected to ratify the blueprint for reform in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, November. And whether the vested interests can be subdued will be a severe test facing the new leadership.

This also affects the global economy to a large extent.

　　 China's changing world

Philip Schellekens, a World Bank economist, said China's upcoming reforms are of great significance. China has changed, and the whole world will change.

On the whole, developing countries that rely on commodity exports are more vulnerable to shocks than developed countries. In developed countries, Australia is clearly an exception, and 1/3 of Australia's exports are flowing to China.

Demand for commodities should remain strong, especially in view of the fact that China's capital stock per head is only 10% of that of the United States, and China's urbanization process still has a long way to go. But as China's economy rebalances, commodities that are more relevant to consumption will become more popular.

Economists worry that before the price of raw materials has gone up, too many emerging markets will spend a lot of money on spending instead of investing in infrastructure and other investments. Therefore, when China's demand tends to be weak, the growth of these economies will slow down.

China's demand for agricultural commodities and energy should remain strong, but Capital Economics, a London consulting firm, said it was worried about some metals. Exporting country The current account deficit is now absent in these countries.

The agency believes that South Africa, Zambia, Chile and Peru are particularly vulnerable.